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Scenario Testing: Housing Supply, Fiscal and Emission Impacts
Our simulations put planning departments in the driver’s seat. They make it possible to compare business-as-usual outcomes with defined goals, while also testing a range of regulatory scenarios from best case to worst case. This allows decision-makers to see the trade-offs and plan infrastructure upgrades with greater confidence.
Housing Market Response Forecast
Many municipalities lack the in-house capacity to accurately forecast infill development potential, leaving them without the data needed to guide smart growth decisions. Unlike expansion growth forecasts that benefit from standardized housing models on undeveloped land, infill occurs within complex, established urban fabrics. Factors such as existing building age, lot sizes, heritage designations, flood plains, and proximity to transportation all influence development potential. On top of these factors, there are infrastructure constraints—like sewage capacity, stormwater management, and preservation of mature trees—which add layers of complexity that demand tailored, site-specific solutions.
BuildingIN’s approach fills this gap—providing clear, data-driven forecasts that help cities understand where infill is viable and what regulatory changes can unlock new housing. By combining GIS mapping and data analysis, we can simulate the likely choices of developers and the cumulative impact of these decisions over time and across different areas of a municipality. Infill housing simulation answers key questions:
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If I were a developer, what would I build in this area, and in that one?
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How many dwelling units, and of what size and type?
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What would the building’s height and width be?
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How much green space would surround the buildings, and where would the new residents park?
Instead of looking only at zoning on paper, our approach takes into account a wide mix of real‑world factors—like how quickly different neighbourhoods tend to redevelop, the size and shape of lots, access to transit, and the developer's proforma.
The output from BuildingIN’s infill housing simulation is provided in a variety of formats. We provide maps that highlight areas where new developments are likely, showing anticipated densities. Our 3D library features residential streets from older neighbourhoods across Canada, so we can visualize how new infill fits within the existing context. Additionally, our Housing Catalogue provides detailed examples, showcasing different dwelling unit types and sizes, making it easier for municipalities to plan and developers to execute.
Fiscal Sustainability Forecast
Municipalities are on the front lines of an escalating housing crisis, while simultaneously facing financial constraints. They collect just 11% of all tax revenue but are responsible for delivering 15% of all government services. Low-rise infill offers a proven fiscal advantage.
By making better use of infrastructure that is already in place in serviced neighbourhoods, it reduces the long-term financial pressures created by low-density expansion growth.
Our fiscal sustainability modelling makes these trade-offs visible.
With additional infill development, municipalities can anticipate increased property tax revenue and, where applicable, development charges. They may also generate additional funding from federal and provincial governments by meeting agreed-upon housing targets. However, greater infill densities require targeted municipal spending to ensure neighbourhoods evolve into complete, vibrant communities that people will want to live in.
This "chicken-and-egg" dilemma—balancing development and necessary upgrades—has been a barrier to council commitments. But with simulations of housing and fiscal outcomes, decision-makers can confidently plan and execute these upgrades, ensuring growth is sustainable and aligned with their goals.
Emissions Forecast
Our emissions modelling shows how different growth patterns affect greenhouse gas emissions from both buildings and transportation, including the benefits of shared walls, floors, and ceilings in multi-unit infill. These reductions often surpass the energy efficiency of the best insulation, offering a powerful tool for lowering a municipality's carbon footprint.
Using detailed, block‑level GIS property and building data, we compare a “business‑as‑usual” path with alternative regulatory scenarios that enable low-rise intensification. The results highlight, in clear maps and visuals, how focusing growth on low-rise infill—can achieve significant carbon footprint reductions for households and the municipality at large.
Let's Explore Solutions Together
Share your challenges or goals with us, and we’ll set up a quick discovery call to explore solutions tailored to your planning needs.