Simulation and Evidence-Based Decision Making
Simulation is at the core of BuildingIN, offering vital insights and answering key questions such as: How many infill housing units can our city expect, and what types will they be? What impact will this have on neighbourhood improvements, municipal finances, and emissions reductions? The BuildingIN team has rigorously tested, simulated, and compared numerous scenarios, then reverse-engineered overlay regulations and municipal investment strategies to meet housing needs. This ensures cities can strategically plan for the next generation of low-rise infill housing, tailored to the diverse needs of Canadians.
Our simulations put planning departments in the driver’s seat, allowing decision-makers to compare outcomes against targets and plan infrastructure upgrades with confidence. At the heart of our program for municipalities is a foundation of simulation and modeling, empowering cities to make data-driven decisions. Our Community and Industry Workshops foster collaboration and constructive dialogue, where participants can compare simulated outcomes, understand cause and effect, and draw actionable conclusions that address the unique needs of their communities.
Simulating Housing Supply and Diversity
We simulate infill housing outcomes by analyzing the likely choices of developers and the cumulative impact of these decisions over time and across different areas of a city. Once city planners can visualize potential outcomes, they’re better equipped to plan for housing goals and invest in complementary services.
Infill housing simulation answers key questions: If I were a developer, what would I build in this area, and in that one? How many dwelling units, and of what size and type? What would the building’s height and width be? How much green space would surround the buildings, and where would the new residents park?
The output from BuildingIN’s infill housing simulation is provided in a variety of formats. We offer maps that highlight areas where new developments are likely, showing anticipated densities. Our 3D library features residential streets from older neighbourhoods across Canada, so we can visualize how new infill fits within the existing context. Our Catalogue provides detailed examples, showcasing different dwelling unit types and sizes, making it easier for municipalities to plan and developers to execute.
Simulating Fiscal Sustainability
Municipalities are on the front lines of an escalating housing crisis, while simultaneously facing financial constraints. They collect just 11% of all tax revenue but are responsible for delivering 15% of all government services. BuildingIN simulates the fiscal impacts of municipal choices, helping cities understand expected increases in revenue and growing expenditures. We model current scenarios, the effects of upcoming regulatory changes, and the fiscal benefits that arise from implementing BuildingIN.
With additional infill development, municipalities can anticipate increased property tax revenue and, where applicable, development charges. They may also generate additional funding from federal and provincial governments by meeting agreed-upon housing targets. However, greater infill densities require targeted municipal spending to ensure neighbourhoods evolve into complete, vibrant communities that people will want to live in.
This "chicken-and-egg" dilemma—balancing development and necessary upgrades—has been a barrier to council commitments. But with simulations of housing and fiscal outcomes, decision-makers can confidently plan and execute these upgrades, ensuring growth is sustainable and aligned with their goals.
Simulating Emissions Reductions
Cities are central to reducing emissions and must lead the charge in climate action. However, municipal climate initiatives can be expensive and complex. BuildingIN simplifies this by simulating the reductions in average household emissions across various infill housing scenarios, helping cities understand how to achieve significant emissions cuts in ways that are both straightforward and cost-free. Our approach empowers municipalities to make impactful, sustainable changes without the burden of high costs, contributing to climate goals while improving local communities.
Cities are responsible for 70% of global emissions, with transportation accounting for 40%. BuildingIN simulations illustrate how emissions can be reduced in transportation by increasing transit-supportive densities in older neighbourhoods, enabling investment in active transportation, and transforming communities into dynamic, desirable places to live and shop.
Another 35% of city emissions stem from buildings. BuildingIN simulates emissions reductions from buildings, including the benefits of shared walls, floors, and ceilings in multi-unit infill. These reductions often surpass the energy efficiency of the best insulation, offering a powerful tool for lowering a city’s carbon footprint.
When cities make housing decisions, they’re also making decisions about emissions. By promoting more multi-unit infill housing, neighbourhoods will become cleaner, healthier, and more sustainable. Our simulations enable planners and community members to visualize the direct emissions impacts of these housing choices, empowering them to plan for a greener, more sustainable future.
Simulating Housing-Market Response
Many municipalities lack the in-house capacity to accurately forecast infill development potential, leaving them without the data needed to guide smart growth decisions. BuildingIN’s approach fills this gap—providing clear, data-driven forecasts that help cities understand where infill is viable and what regulatory changes can unlock new housing.
Infill development differs fundamentally from expansion growth. While expansion projects benefit from standardized housing models on undeveloped land, infill occurs within complex, established urban fabrics. Factors such as existing building age, lot sizes, heritage designations, flood plains, and proximity to transportation all influence development potential.
On top of these factors, there are infrastructure constraints—like sewage capacity, stormwater management, and preservation of mature trees—which add layers of complexity that demand tailored, site-specific solutions.
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The business case for infill hinges on navigating these complexities.
With decades of experience working with infill developers, BuildingIN has developed a unique approach that forecasts what infill developers will build, projected forward in time and mapped over low-rise neighbourhoods.
Our analysis considers the builder's business proforma, the regulatory environment, and the real estate market to forecast the quantity of infill housing that would be built under existing or proposed regulatory scenarios, and within constraints of the building code.
Our Methodology: Data-Driven, Developer-Informed
1. Developer Behaviour Analysis
We analyze builder proformas, local regulations, and market conditions to anticipate what will be built, where, and when.
2. Regulatory and Market Assessment
We assess both existing and proposed zoning, as well as building code constraints, to identify feasible housing typologies. Our analysis considers how time delays, regulatory uncertainty, and approval processes impact developer decisions and project timelines.
3. Assumption Validation
All assumptions are verified through direct consultation with local industry members, ensuring our forecasts reflect real-world market conditions and builder perspectives.
4. Business Model Sensitivity
We identify barriers such as approval delays, ambiguous regulations, or zoning that does not align with market demand These issues can disrupt proformas and discourage developers from participating. Our approach demonstrates how these factors affect project feasibility and the likelihood of infill development at scale.
5. Risk and Profitability
Our analysis carefully evaluates the risk and profitability associated with different infill scenarios. By simulating outcomes under various regulatory and market conditions, we anticipate how changes in policy or market trends could impact developer decisions and infill project viability.